Arizona may have to use less Colorado River water than it has at any point in modern history, while water agencies are also preparing for possible legal fights and emergency reservoir operations.
KJZZ reported on a new analysis from independent Colorado River experts that described the reductions facing Arizona, California, and Nevada as “unprecedented.” The researchers said recent water use in the Lower Basin is already relatively low, leaving fewer easy conservation options if deeper cuts are required.
Arizona is expected to take the largest share of the 2027 and 2028 Lower Basin reductions. The Central Arizona Project would absorb much of that impact because of its junior priority within Arizona’s Colorado River allocation.
CAP leaders are also preparing for the possibility that the dispute could move into court. KJZZ reported that the Central Arizona Water Conservation District board took a procedural step that could allow future legal action over the federal Colorado River plan. The agency has not filed a lawsuit, but the move keeps that option open as Arizona evaluates the federal framework.
While legal and policy questions continue, federal officials are also trying to protect Lake Powell. KSL reported that the Bureau of Reclamation is releasing between 660,000 and 1 million acre-feet of additional water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir through April 2027. The releases are intended to help keep Lake Powell above critical elevations needed for dam operations and hydropower. Utah officials said Flaming Gorge cannot serve as a permanent solution to Lake Powell’s decline.
The additional release shows how connected the Upper and Lower basins are. Water stored hundreds of miles upstream can be moved to protect Lake Powell, which in turn affects releases into the Lower Basin and the larger operation of the Colorado River.
Boise State Public Radio and the Mountain West News Bureau analyzed Bureau of Reclamation data and found that irrigated agriculture accounted for about 65% of overall Colorado River consumptive use from 2000 through 2024. When evaporation is excluded and only human uses are considered, agriculture accounted for roughly 74%. Reservoir evaporation itself represented at least 12% of total use in the analysis.
The report also found differences in how water use is measured across the Basin. Lower Basin deliveries are generally measured directly from reservoirs and canals, while Upper Basin use is often estimated by calculating stream depletion and return flows. Those different systems can make exact comparisons difficult.
Groundwater pressures are developing alongside the Colorado River shortage. The Arizona Farm Bureau reported that the Willcox Basin is losing about 150,000 acre-feet more groundwater each year than is naturally replaced. Arizona’s proposed management approach would seek to cut that overdraft roughly in half over time, which could require significant reductions from agriculture.
Together, the Sept. 8 reports show that the next phase of Colorado River management will involve more than setting a shortage number. Arizona and other Basin states are dealing with legal questions, reservoir operations, agricultural demand, groundwater decline, and even disagreements over how water use should be measured.
What does this mean for CRIT?
These reports are especially relevant because the Tribe holds senior Colorado River rights and is a major agricultural water user directly along the river.
The CAP legal discussion mainly concerns users with different priorities than CRIT, but the larger dispute still matters. Decisions about Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and the division of shortages shape the river system where CRIT’s rights are exercised.
The Flaming Gorge releases also show how federal managers are using water throughout the Basin to protect critical reservoir elevations. Even though that water originates far upstream, the condition of Lake Powell affects the entire Colorado River system.
The water-use reporting is particularly relevant to agriculture. With agriculture representing the largest share of consumptive use Basin-wide, future conservation discussions are likely to continue focusing heavily on farms. For CRIT, that makes it important to distinguish the Tribe’s senior rights, agricultural economy, and existing water management from other categories of water use.
Sources
KJZZ, “Colorado River cuts could force ‘unprecedented’ low water use for Arizona, new study finds.”
https://www.kjzz.org/science/2026-09-08/colorado-river-cuts-could-force-unprecedented-low-water-use-for-arizona-new-study-finds
KJZZ, “CAP leaders take a step toward legal action over Arizona’s Colorado River water share.”
https://www.kjzz.org/politics/2026-09-05/cap-leaders-take-a-step-toward-legal-action-over-arizonas-colorado-river-water-share
KSL, “More water being released from Flaming Gorge to help Lake Powell.”
https://www.ksl.com/article/news/utah/environment/more-water-being-released-from-flaming-gorge-to-help-lake-powell/51621145
Boise State Public Radio, “Measuring the use of Colorado River water is harder than it looks.”
https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/news/2026-09-08/measuring-the-use-of-colorado-river-water-is-harder-than-it-looks
Arizona Farm Bureau, “Willcox Plan Shakes Up Arizona Groundwater Policy.”
https://www.azfb.org/Article/arizona-groundwater-willcox-management-plan