The Colorado River’s new operating framework may provide short-term direction, but the larger fight over how the river should be divided is still unresolved.
University of Arizona News reported that the Bureau of Reclamation’s Aug. 21 decision sets operations for 2027 and 2028, with new guidelines to be reconsidered every two years after that as negotiations continue.
Under the framework, Arizona’s Colorado River deliveries will be reduced by 760,000 acre-feet. Sharon Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center, said the reductions are significant but not as deep as some earlier possibilities. She also noted that Tucson has spent years storing Central Arizona Project water underground, giving the city an additional supply to draw from during shortages.
The framework gives Arizona and other Lower Basin users some near-term certainty, but it does not settle the disagreement between the Upper and Lower basins.
Colorado Public Radio reported that the river’s 10-year flow at Lee’s Ferry may soon fall below a level that has become an important point in the debate over the 1922 Colorado River Compact.
The Compact states that the Upper Basin cannot cause flows at Lee’s Ferry to fall below 75 million acre-feet over any 10-year period. The question becomes more complicated when Mexico’s share of Colorado River water is included. Water experts interviewed by CPR said the Upper Basin disputes how much additional water it may be obligated to provide.
Officials estimate that the 10-year flow could fall below 82.5 million acre-feet by October. Some Lower Basin officials have pointed to that level as a possible legal trigger in the ongoing dispute over Compact obligations.
If the states cannot resolve those disagreements through negotiation, the issue could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court. CPR reported that both Upper and Lower Basin states are already preparing for possible litigation.
That would not be a quick process. The last major interstate Colorado River case, Arizona v. California, took more than a decade to reach a ruling, with additional decrees continuing for decades afterward.
Tribal water rights are also part of the legal landscape. CPR reported that 30 federally recognized Tribal Nations in the Colorado River Basin collectively hold rights to more than one-quarter of the river’s water. Some of those rights remain unresolved, while other Tribes still lack the infrastructure needed to fully use their water.
The KJZZ “Troubled Waters” project also highlights another concern: much of the negotiation over the river’s future has taken place behind closed doors. The reporting notes that Tribal leaders and transparency advocates have raised questions about who is included in negotiations and how decisions affecting the entire Basin are being made.
Together, the Sept. 9 reports show that the Basin is moving through two different processes at the same time. Arizona and other Lower Basin users are preparing for immediate reductions beginning in 2027, while the seven Basin states continue arguing over the much larger question of how the Colorado River should be managed over the long term.
What does this mean for CRIT?
The short-term framework provides more clarity about what will happen in 2027 and 2028, but the larger negotiations remain important.
CRIT’s senior Colorado River rights put the Tribe in a different legal position than many Central Arizona Project users. Still, disputes between the Upper and Lower basins could shape reservoir operations, federal decision-making, and the broader legal framework surrounding the river.
The CPR reporting is also important because it shows that Tribal water rights remain part of the larger Colorado River discussion. Tribes are sovereign governments and water-rights holders, and decisions about the river can affect both recognized rights and the ability to actually use those rights.
The KJZZ reporting also connects directly to consultation. As negotiations continue, questions remain about how much Tribal governments and the public are included in decisions that could shape the Colorado River for
Sources
Article link: University of Arizona News, “Water wisdom following the new Colorado River framework”
https://news.arizona.edu/employee-news/water-wisdom-following-new-colorado-river-framework
Article link: KJZZ, “Troubled Waters: Scarcity and the Colorado River battle”
https://www.kjzz.org/troubled-waters-scarcity-and-the-colorado-river-battle
Article link: Colorado Public Radio, “If Colorado River compact heads to Supreme Court, ‘everybody loses,’ experts say”
https://www.cpr.org/2026/09/09/colorado-river-supreme-court-stakes/